The Power of the Written Word
The Power of the Written Word
Guest blogs for further reading: THE IMMIGRATION CHALLENGE BY Dr. Jose M. Aybar
True,—This!
Beneath the rule of men entirely great
The pen is mightier than the sword. Behold
The arch-enchanters wand!— itself a nothing!—
But taking sorcery from the master-hand
To paralyze the Cæsars—and to strike
The loud earth breathless!—Take away the sword—
States can be saved without it! —
Edward Bulwer-Lytton in 1839 for his play Richelieu; Or the Conspiracy.
“Ex-President’s Trump 10-25 million mass deportation proposal is unworkable and not in the US National Interest. It is rhetoric full of theater but devoid of substance and fraught with significant implementation costs that will be passed on to the taxpayer.” -JMA
AN ANALYSIS OF A PROPOSED SOLUTION:
THE IMMIGRATION CHALLENGE
BY Dr. Jose M. Aybar
The US is a nation of immigrants. Wave after wave of immigrants has come to our shores seeking a better life. They are fleeing from oppressive regimes and seeking to work for their place in the world. They seek the umbrella of a democratic government, duly elected, where they will be able to earn representation through their hard work. The émigré is driven by an urgency for survival in a better world. In short, they are striving to become fully integrated into the American Dream.
Immigration is one of the key issues in the 2024 national debate for the US Presidency. Ex-President Trump has proposed to address this issue through the mass deportation of 10 million unauthorized immigrants. And this mass deportation is to take place within the first two years of office (?). The plan envisions using the National Guard, US Armed Forces, etc. It also entails setting up massive detention camps to warehouse and process the 10 million unauthorized immigrants. And let us be clear, most of the target population to be deported are Hispanic and most probably from Mexico.
Ex-President Trump’s Proposal for mass deportation needs to be reviewed in terms of feasibility, cost to the taxpayer, and benefit to the nation. The proposal needs to be evaluated holistically from a systemic perspective rather than from the vantage of bombastic emotive campaign rhetoric.
US IMMIGRATION CHALLENGE: THE SETTING
The number of unauthorized immigrants in the US runs from 10 to 25 million. The US has a population of 345,426,571 ( 2024 projection). Unauthorized immigrants, using the lower figure of 10 million, represent roughly 2.8 % of the total US population. ii It is a small percentage, but take a moment to visualize what this population agglomeration would look like. It would be approximately equivalent to the population of states such as Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan; or as big as the City of Los Angeles, and almost as big as New York City. The number is visually staggering, and it puts in perspective the enormity of the challenge.
The unauthorized immigrant is ensconced in a “sub-economy” that exists under the “radar” of the law. As sub-rosa “entrants” to the labor force, unauthorized immigrants have taken the least desirable jobs at minimum wages. This has benefited the private sector as they are the source of a cheap labor force.
It has been argued that the immigrant has taken/is taking away jobs from US citizens. The size of the US labor market is approximately 167.73 million strong. Unauthorized immigrants represent approximately 19.1-22% of the total US labor force and there are still 8.2 million jobs unfulfilled, estimated 4.8% unemployment. iii It is specious to argue that jobs are being taken away given the number of jobs unfulfilled.
FEASIBILITY OF MASS DEPORTATION
Pause for a moment and envision the magnitude of the enterprise. We are dealing with the moving and removal of a population segment weighing in at 10 million. Little thought has been given to the logistics of “capturing” upwards of 10 million people, and moving them to processing centers (Greyhound buses, etc.), training processing personnel, expanding the judicial system to deal with all the legal constitutional challenges, and finally, the transport infrastructure by plane or cruise ship .
Asset summary for the US is as follows: 1.29 million active military personnel and 767,238 National Guard. It behooves us to note that we are living in perilous times with the threat of war looming on at least two fronts, Europe and Asia. Further, 228,000 of the 1.29 million are actively deployed overseas in our various foreign ventures. The US border guard force weighs in at roughly 22,000. In short, US military capacity is not numerically equal to the task of capturing the 10 million and/or monitoring (patrolling) multiple mass deportation sites and processes. iv [ Caveat, said proposed massive deportation holding facilities would be spread out in every State of the Union.] And there is one additional question: Does the President have the Constitutional right to use the military to implement said proposed mass deportation policy?
Pause for a moment and reflect on the effect and treatment of the Mariel Boatlift in 1980. The floodgates of Cuba were opened and over the following six-months Key West, Florida, saw the arrival of over 125,000 refugees. The US was ill-prepared to handle the influx of that many refugees (understatement). Every Greyhound Bus in the region was mobilized to move the refugees from Key West to Eglin Air Force base in the panhandle.
Over 10,000 refugees were processed at Eglin Air Force Base. An estimate of the number of Greyhound buses used to transport 10,000 might have been about 166 and the trip took over 12 hours, one way. Ancillary issues to keep in mind are meals (30,000 a day multiplied by 180 days [6 months = 5,400,000 meals), tent housing, processing infrastructure, and refugee population containment. Existing State and Federal economic resources were strained to meet the costs of the Mariel Boatlift. Societal dislocation was visibly palpable in Florida, and most strikingly in Miami.
The Mariel Boatlift provides perspective regarding the immensity of the challenge. If this is for 125,000, what would it be for 1 million, and even more so with the proposed 10 million? What are the consequences of the mass deportation of 10 million unauthorized immigrants to the US?
Tongue in cheek, imagine the following: The US has a fleet of 434 Boeing 747s. Their capacity ranges between 416 to 605 passengers. Mathematically, you would need upwards of 24,038 flights to transfer the 10 million to country of origin; and this is without taking into consideration the White Elephant in the room. Would the country of origin be willing to accept the immigrant back into its fold?
BENEFITS OF IMMIGRATION
National Debt. The US has a 35 trillion-dollar national debt, and this is rising every day. Unauthorized immigrants create 7 trillion dollars in revenue to the US GDP. Simply put, the incarceration and deportation of 10 million immigrants has the potential of increasing the national debt to 42 trillion dollars in a very short time period by withdrawing them from the economy. vi
US Food Supply. 22.1 million people are employed in the US Food Industry, and to the point, immigrants compose 21% of that number, 4.6 million. vii The issue for the reader to ponder is what would be the effect of withdrawing 4.6 million workers from the food industry in the US? What would be the effect on the feeding of America? Palpable responses to be considered are higher food prices, food shortages, and overall higher inflation rates.
Construction. Roughly 10.76 million people are employed in the US Construction Industry. Of these, 25% are immigrants (2.6 million +/-). viii The question arises: what would be the effect of withdrawing 2.6 million unauthorized immigrants from the construction industry nationwide?
One can envision as a direct consequence a higher cost of construction, marked delays in meeting construction deadlines, and most significantly, a significant decline in the total output of construction projects. Who pays? The higher cost of production to the industry would be naturally passed on to the consumer.
The aforementioned discussion raises a small portion of the ancillary questions surrounding ex-President Trump’s Mass Deportation proposal. From a business perspective, the question on the table is always what is the benefit of carrying out a given action, where is the gain, and ultimately, who benefits? Do the attendant costs of carrying out the policy outweigh the expense to the nation and its citizenry? In addition, there is the nagging question of feasibility and socio-economic disruption?
DIRECT AND INDIRECT COSTS
Is the implementation of the proposed mass deportation policy feasible, particularly given the numbers and their impact on the US socio-economic system as a whole? Finally, who is going to bear the cost of warehousing 10 million unauthorized immigrants? The implication is that there will be a resultant decrease in the size of the tax-paying base, as well as a decrease in the size of the workforce. It is to be emphasized that costs related to the deportation will be borne by the remaining taxpayer base even as there is a sizeable increase in the US national debt!
The warehousing of the ten million in massive deportation centers across the US comes with an exorbitant cost to the taxpayer. Just think of the staggering cost of feeding 10 million three times a day until their given deportation deadline arrives. That is 30 million meals a day at the taxpayers’ expense. Add to this the cost of transportation to the country of origin.
What is the benefit of killing the GOLDEN GOOSE that is laying a proverbial GOLDEN EGG estimated at 7 trillion to the US GDP on a yearly basis?
What is the benefit of throwing away a human resource that the US needs to replenish its dwindling population? The US is in the throes of an unyielding population decline. This is a demographic phenomenon that the US cannot solve on its own. The US population is aging rapidly, and the Baby Boomers have reached, and/or are reaching, retirement age. This means that the income generating workforce size is decreasing by the number of people who are retiring, ergo, less people generating GDP.
The aging and retiring workforce require increased medical services, much of which is borne by Social Security. An outcome of the increased demand for medical service is an increase in their cost. This also implies longer wait times for the delivery of services. The current dialogue on Social Security is a manifestation of the looming crisis. Seniors are expected to make up 20% of the US population by 2030.
Some of the major economic effects that are projected as a result of the retirement of this segment of the population include a decline in: basic services infrastructure, number of people ready to serve in the military, higher costs, and a crisis in elderly care (as their numbers increase they are vying for the same services, and these will not be available in the needed quantity or price level). Not only is the US population aging rapidly, it is also living longer. US life expectancy in 2024 stands at 79.4 years.ix
The above compilation of facts from various angles raises some serious questions regarding the viability of the implementation of a massive deportation policy. Beyond that, one is befuddled by the proposal to kill the Golden Goose that is producing capital for an economy clearly in a deficit spending mode.
Again, the devil is in the detail. Beyond considering the fallacies and contradictions inherent in the implementation of the mass deportation proposal, there is a major element that needs to be addressed, the human condition and the national moral compass.
Target Population Capture. Raids by US Immigration Enforcement personnel would begin a roundup of the targeted population at various locations across the US. Given the projected goal of ten million, there would be a massive buildup of US personnel targeting homes and local businesses.
Pathos of Population Displacement. The most salient effect of the raids leading to fulfilling the goal of the proposed policy is the separation of families. There are upwards of 4.4 million children under the age of 18 who are US Citizens living with one undocumented parent.x These are constitutionally bona fide US citizens. US Citizenship is their birthright. Under the proposed mass deportation policy these would be separated from their families.
Pause for a moment and visualize a scenario where you, the reader, are an unauthorized immigrant. It is the middle of the night and there is a knock on the door. You get up to answer and are met with a “security force” which is asking for proof of citizenship. You are paralyzed by the blinking lights of patrol cars and mesmerized by the visual of security personnel scurrying around to secure the perimeter and search your house. You are forced to your knees and handcuffed. Your family is “secured and whisked” to an encampment and the theoretical processing begins. You are separated from your children. The deportation process proceeds in full swing, and a major societal dislocation occurs.
The house where you lived is now vacant and no notice has been given to the owner of what has transpired. The familial loss of income will inevitably lead to potential foreclosure. Your employer is left without a worker, thus decreasing his income generating output. A new element enters into the systemic equation which affects the society at large, FEAR.
Now, society at large is living under the threat of being scrutinized for citizenship. Needless to say, the implementation of authoritarian measures is going to have as a natural consequence excess in the use of force which will spill-over to citizens and non-citizens alike. A nation in FEAR is born!
The implementation of this policy harkens elements of science fiction alternate history scenarios wherein the society is transformed into a police state with the marked presence of labor encampments for the warehousing of societal dissenters, i.e., the American Gulag. xi 6
ABSURDITY ABOVE EVERYTHING ELSE: TRUMP’S MASS DEPORTATION PROPOSAL-0BSERVATIONS
The subject of immigration needs a rational discussion leading to reasoned policy and subsequent implementation. It needs to be guided by what will best serve the core interest of the nation. It needs to make economic sense. And most of all, it needs to be FEASIBLE.
The cultural matrix of the US has changed and continues to evolve at an extremely fast pace. Technology is bringing conflict to our very doorstep even as the event is unfolding. The demographic makeup of the nation has already tilted and Hispanics willy nilly have become a major population segment of America. Hispanics currently make up 19.1% of the American population (2024) and are projected to grow to 26.% by 2060. xii
There has not been an immigration influx to any country in the world that has not caused social conflict. The adjustment of the social matrix to a new equilibrium point takes years to achieve, is constantly evolving, and marked by majority/minority strife, i.e., a struggle for dominance of one group over the other. The society receiving the immigrant naturally seeks a controlled flow of immigration according to established processes and reigning Constitutional Law requirements.
The US is undergoing a major societal readjustment as a result of changes in the composition of its demographics. The mass deportation proposal by ex-President Trump is a manifestation of a majority/minority conflict for dominance. It is reminiscent of issues raised in the microcosm of Florida as a result of the Cuban influx in the 1960’s. And this is a struggle which continues even today. It is a conflict full of bile that is fueling the fire of inter-racial and ethnic conflict.
Partisan political issues need to be put aside in order to address the immigration issues facing the US. The immigration crisis requires a collaborative non-partisan effort that puts the national interest above the rhetoric. The issues need to be addressed based on hard facts, logic, and reason.
TAKEAWAYS
I. Ex-President’s Trump 10-25 million mass deportation proposal is unworkable and not in the US National Interest. It is rhetoric full of theater but devoid of substance and fraught with significant implementation costs that will be passed on to the taxpayer.
II. The income produced by the unauthorized immigrant is significant at an estimated 7 trillion, and far outweighs the socio-economic costs attendant to this cohort.
III. The US is in need of an aggressive Adult Education and Vocational process to assist in the full integration of the unauthorized immigrant so that they can generate the income to better assist the US in decreasing the size of the National Debt. The US needs to provide an infrastructure to harness the capacity of this workforce segment for its future survival as a world power.
Bio and foot notes:
Former President of Richard J. Daley College; PhD in International Relations from the Claremont Graduate School, Claremont, Calif. Research areas: Soviet Foreign Policy, International Politics, US Foreign Policy;. Latin American Studies; Higher Education Policy; and Remedial Education.
ii Bureau of Labor Statistics. “News Release”. July 30,2024. 10:00 am. PressOffice@bls.gov.
iii Bureau of Labor Statistics. “News Release. May 21, 2024. 10:00 am. PressOffice@bls.gov
iv USA Facts Team. “How many people are in the US military? A demographic overview.” USA Facts. February 21,2024. Figure for Border Patrol taken from Search Labs/AI Overview, August 16,2024.
v At this point in my life’s journey, I was the Executive Director of the Florida State Commission on Hispanic Affairs and represented the Office of the Governor of the State of Florida on site at the outset of the Mariel Boatlift. The scene in Key West was simply chaotic. The boats were unloading people faster than they could be processed or channeled. It was an organizational nightmare.
vi Sarriva, Augusta and Enda Curran. “Immigration is Fueling US Economic Growth While Politicians Rage”. Bloomberg. August 13,2024. 8:51 AM
vii Search Labs/AI Overview, August 20,2024
viii Ibid.
ix Elliott, Diana. “Want Another Perspective on the U.S. Labor Shortage?Talk to a Demographer”. PRB. January 20,2023.
x American Immigration Council. “U.S.-Citizen Children Impacted by Immigration Enforcement.” Americanimmigrationcouncil.org June 24, 2021.
xi Harry Turtledove. Joe Steele. New York: Penguin Group, 2015.
xii Search Labs/AI Overview. August 20,2024.
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